PCU:
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Southern Copper has increased by almost 700% over the past three years, as copper prices have rallied to all-time nominal highs. I entered PCU in September of '04 as it broke out of an imperfect inverse head-and-shoulders formation at about 43. It was imperfect in that there was very little decrease before entering into the formation. The imperfection showed itself in a year of ups and downs before finally reasserting itself.
As the world economy goes, so goes copper, and so goes PCU. There is some talk of a merger with one or more of the other major copper producers, but it is just talk at this point. Going forward, I see some continued upside to this stock, however, there has been a huge amount of speculation and investment in copper, and may be due for a significant pullback. Combine that fact with the run-off election in Peru (PCU's major production center) of either a populist-leftist, or a populist-further-leftist, both of whom have hinted toward nationalization or heavy taxation of mining assets, and this stock has me looking at a tight mental stop.
If PCU violates 94 on volume, I am likely to bail.
X:
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U.S. Steel bounced out of a double-bottom base on December 2nd, '05 on heavy volume. X continues to hold strong above its 50-day, and far above its 200-day (by about 50%, which makes me a bit nervous).
U.S. Steel is benefitting from two major indistry trends, the massive restructuring of the late 90's-early 00's, and a global construction boom. With production based mostly in the U.S. and Eastern Europe, X is benefitting only indirectly from Chinese consumption and its effect upon global commodity prices. The biggest threat to X? Well, China has invested MASSIVELY in domestic steel production, and much of that capacity is just now coming online. Though X's management remain confident, that extra capacity will eventually crush demand and margins. With a recent restructuring in their past, X doesn't have a heck of a lot of fat to trim, so when the end comes, it'll come fast and hard.
With that said, X likely has a bit to ride, but I'll be using a heavy volume close below the 50-day as my out.
HMY:
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Harmony Gold broke out of a textbook inverted head-and-shoulders in September of '05 and has charged up about 85% since then. Not bad, but other more profitable gold stocks have been doing better. Were it not for the massive run up in the gold markets (currently above $700/oz.), HMY would be sucking teet in a bankruptcy court.
A wise pullback from the 18.85, followed by a failed attempt at a short term inverted head-and-shoulders is making me look for the exit. Even if gold continues to rally, Harmony is likely to benefit the least of its peers. The possible upside would be a mooted spinning-off of profitable assets (followed by my selling my shares).
Another weakened stock has me looking for a high-volume close below the 50-day as my exit.
RELV:
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This bastard has me spooked. Good growth, and a chart that looks a hell of a lot like the bottom of a bowl pattern has me holding on, but just by my fingernails. A close below 11 will walk me out the door.
There is serious support at 11 from the nape of a long term double-bottom formation along with the 200-day MA. With that said, last weeks earnings report should have pushed RELV up. I believe there is a lot of overhanging shares, and that this stock may have to struggle its way up, but I still think the odds are tipped towards improvement.
As I've said, a close below 11 will be the end for me and RELV.
BAS:
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Okay, don't get emotional about your stocks, sure, but I love BAS.
This is a recent IPO that broke out of a good cup-with-handle at the end of March. Oil service sector, acquisitive and small enough to both grow quickly and/or be acquired by Slumberger or some other behemoth with a pumped up stock price. Blew out its earnings estimate yesterday, and is continuing on a stepping pattern.
What's not to like? Not much... It is a domestic oil service company in an era of high-priced and insecure international oil. The downsides are mostly long-term and general trend: alternative fuels and higher supply along with a slowing world economy.
A close below 30 in volume would get me out, but it doesn't look especially likely at this point.
HITK:
I ditched this bad buy yesterday... Bought it on a 200-day bounce in a good uptrend. It broke below its 200-day and I pulled the trigger. Damage wasn't too high, about 6%.
